StubHub just landed on a big-time analyst’s buy list

StubHub is on the radar of a big-time analyst, just as mobile and digital ticketing trends heat up.

Events and live experiences are bouncing back post-Covid. Amid this trend, StubHub brings a digital edge, making it unique among the many companies offering verified and secure resale platforms.

And that’s why a top Wall Street analyst is alerting investors regarding this tech-focused play.

Justin Post of Bank of America sent a new note to clients, pegging StubHub as a “high-growth asset” that is expected to outperform other online marketplaces. He gave it a buy rating, assigning a $25 price target, which is not bad, considering these are still early days in its history as a bona fide listed stock.

His call depends on the company’s move into direct ticketing, advertising, and exclusive sports agreements, all of which are expected to occur before the 2026 U.S. World Cup, a significant event worldwide.

StubHub, which launched in 2000 and currently controls around 50% of North America’s secondary ticket market, is spending a lot of money — over $900 million on sales and marketing — to maintain its dominance in the market.

Post thinks that spending will soon pay off, with EBITDA margins expected to more than quadruple by 2026 and long-term profits perhaps reaching 40%.

We expect growth to outpace online marketplace averages, but high expectations and lock-up expiration risk are near-term overhangs.

There are certain problems with the bullish case. Post highlights possible execution risks, notably around the company’s ambition to decrease costs while expanding, and says a lock-up expiration in the first quarter of 2026 might lead to selling pressure.

Post still thinks the setup is interesting, as the stock is selling at a discount to high-growth peers, and catalysts are forthcoming soon. But he says its next step might bring much more growth.

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Post notes that StubHub is starting a new phase that will turn it from a simple resale site into a bigger ticket and media platform.

The business is starting new programs that might greatly increase both profits and sales. And StubHub is big enough to make these risks worth it, unlike many of its smaller competitors.

Post highlighted several growth drivers for the company.

• Direct Issuance: StubHub is partnering with teams and venues to issue tickets directly, capturing value earlier in the funnel.

• Sponsored Ads: An advertising business is being launched, with early signs pointing to a meaningful ramp in 2026.

• U.S. World Cup: With the global tournament coming stateside in 2026, Post expects a sharp rise in ticket demand that could lift StubHub’s entire ecosystem.

• Margin Expansion: As heavy marketing spend normalizes, Post sees operating leverage kicking in. He projects EBITDA margins could double by 2026 and approach 40% long-term.

• Brand Strength: Proprietary survey work shows StubHub leads on user experience and pricing perception among secondary platforms.